(Bloomberg) -- Tunisia is set to hold presidential elections on Oct. 6, a vote that may prove a litmus test for democracy in the North African nation whose populist leader has seized sweeping powers and muzzled most dissent.

President Kais Saied issued an order Tuesday setting the date, with the election commission due to convene later this week to approve a calendar and rules for candidates, the state-run TAP news agency reported.

Tunisian elections over the past decade had showcased a rare flourishing of democracy in the Arab world, a legacy of political freedoms won after mass protests overthrew long-standing autocrat Zine El Abidine Ben Ali in 2011. 

But after Saied, an outsider, beat out established politicians for a surprise win in 2019, he has sidelined opponents and hobbled parliament, prompting accusations he’s returning the country to one-man rule. He denies that’s his intention.

The 66-year-old former constitutional law professor hasn’t explicitly said whether he’ll run again. But with many of his most prominent critics jailed or exiled, including figures from the moderate Islamist Ennahdah party, he’d be unlikely to face much serious competition.

The vote comes at a febrile time for Tunisia’s economy, which has struggled for years with sluggish growth and high youth unemployment. Talks for a $1.9 billion International Monetary Fund rescue package have stalled and authorities have taken the unorthodox step of leaning on the central bank for direct financing of its budget and debt repayments. 

The finance minister on Tuesday said economic growth will be 2.1% this year, helped by a strong performance of the tourism sector and increased exports to Libya. But Tunisia still faces difficulties raising foreign debt, she said.

There’s no sign the country’s fragile opposition will rally behind a single candidate in October’s vote. Among those who’ve said they plan to run are an ex-health minister and the former head of state-owned airline Tunisair. 

Politicians Issem Chebbi and Abir Moussi — the leader of the Free Destorian Party — have also signaled their intentions, although both have been jailed for months.

The Salvation Front, a coalition of opposition parties including Ennahda, has said it won’t present a candidate because the political climate isn’t conducive to a fair vote.

As expectations for the vote grew earlier this year, Tunisian activists accused authorities of carrying out the country’s worst-ever crackdown on dissent. A wave of arrests has swept up journalists, radio hosts and lawyers — some of them accused of violating the terms of a controversial bill issued by Saied to combat what authorities perceive as fake news. 

The final candidates list will likely hinge on a review of qualifications criteria by the elections authority ISIE. That’s been pending since Saied altered the country’s constitution as part of a drive to boost presidential prerogatives at the expense of parliament’s.

Saied in April said he would announce any bid for a second term in due course. Without specifying, he warned he wouldn’t allow those he described as having links with “foreign parties” to compete.

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