Despite economic uncertainty, there’s abundant optimism from airlines and travel experts when it comes to Canadians taking to the skies in 2024.

A recent report from the International Air Transport Association (IATA) projected an estimated 4.7 billion people globally will fly in 2024 – which would exceed the previous record of 4.5 billion set in 2019.

Even with the high volume of travellers, the IATA suggests the airline industry might only have a 2.7 per cent profit margin.

“Considering the major losses of recent years, the US$25.7 billion net profit expected in 2024 is a tribute to aviation’s resilience,” Willie Walsh, IATA’s director general, said in a written statement on the research.

“People love to travel and that has helped airlines to come roaring back to pre-pandemic levels of connectivity. The speed of the recovery has been extraordinary.”

Walsh’s optimism has been reflected at Porter Airlines, where the once-small regional airline spent 2023 aggressively expanding after acquiring 50 new Embraer E195-E2 jets to grow its network.

Overall, the airline added 29 new routes in 2023 and is looking to expand further next year. 

“There are certainly some economic pressures coming from inflation across the Canadian economy, but in Porter’s case we’re seeing very, very strong demand for bookings throughout next year,” Porter CEO Michael Deluce told BNN Bloomberg in a December television interview.

“At this point, we’re not seeing any signs of weakening of what has been a very strong demand environment for the last year.”

The bullish sentiment is also reflected at Play Airlines, an Icelandic discount airline that launched in Canada back in June, with flights out of Hamilton that reach across Europe through Iceland’s capital Reykjavík.

“(The launch has) been absolutely a huge success for us,” Birgir Jónsson, CEO of Play Airlines, told BNN Bloomberg in early December.

“We are looking forward to going through the more slow winter months, but the Canadian market was clearly in need of a new option for European travel,”

Like Deluce, Jónsson is also expecting big things in 2024.

“We see next year and 2025 being … very good (years) for travel,” he said.

“There is growth in the market and we want to ride that wave, but we want to be cautious.”

INTEREST RATES FACTOR IN

Clay Jarvis, a personal finance expert with NerdWallet Canada, said interest rates failed to cut into travel spending this year, and he expects more of the same in 2024.

“I'm expecting Canadians to keep spending pretty big on travel next year,” he told BNNBloomberg.ca in a phone interview.

“It's really going to depend on a few different things. High inflation, high interest rates, both of those pressures ease to provide a little more money for Canadians to spend on the things they enjoy, like travel.”

Jarvis said he’s concerned that the Bank of Canada’s interest rates hikes have not made their way through the economy yet, which could eventually take a bite out of travel spending.

If and when interest rates come down, Jarvis also wondered whether Canadians would choose to pay down debt they’ve accrued over the past couple years rather than spend on travel.

“If price pressures are limiting people in their travel options, staying in Canada is probably going to be the easiest option for them,” he said.