(Bloomberg) -- Russian wheat prices have dipped below other origins again, as hot weather speeds up harvest there and traders compete with rival exporters. 

Wheat-export prices in the world’s top shipper had spiked in May as unseasonable frosts and dry weather caused analysts to lower their production estimates. The higher prices saw Moscow’s exporters lose out on some deals. In recent weeks major importer Egypt had been buying the grain from destinations like Romania and Bulgaria because of better prices. 

“The hot Black Sea weather is speeding the early wheat harvest, encouraging harvest pressure, amid reports of better-than-expected Russian yields too,” CRM AgriCommodities analysts wrote in a note on Wednesday. “This after a record June for Russia’s wheat exports.”

Russia’s June wheat shipments are estimated at 4.3 million tons, 14% more than last year, Interfax reported, citing Rusagrotrans analytical center. Still, it sees shipments slowing substantially in July.

Russia is the world’s top wheat exporter, but it’s expecting a smaller crop in the 2024-25 season after record harvests in the two previous years. Even with a smaller harvest, the crop is expected to be a big one. SovEcon increased its estimate for Russia’s wheat harvest this year to 84.1 million tons, from a previous forecast of 80.7 million tons.

Although crop estimates have been rising on better yields across southwest Russia, the future grain export potential is in decline due to adverse weather, according to Ben Buckner, chief grains analyst for AgResource Co. “We need to watch spring wheat weather very closely at the same time we monitor winter yields as harvest moves farther north, because that area was more exposed to drought and frost,” he said. 

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