Shopify Inc. shares opened trading on Wednesday down 15 per cent after giving a sales outlook for the start of the year that fell short of analyst estimates, a sign that the company faces an uneven recovery from last year’s rout. 

The Ottawa-based company on Wednesday said it expects revenue growth in the “high teen percentages,” slightly below analysts’ current forecasts in a Bloomberg survey of 20 per cent revenue growth year-over-year. It said operating costs should grow in the low single digits compared with the fourth quarter, excluding one-time charges. The shares dropped about 6.6 per cent in extended trading in New York. 

Chief Executive Officer Tobias Lütke is working to recover from a misplaced bet that the pandemic-fueled surge in online shopping would become permanent. Though he’s cut jobs, raised prices and expanded offerings to merchants, the stock is a long way from a full recovery after losing about three-quarters of its value last year.

The company’s new outlook “suggests a slowdown in transaction volume,” Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Anurag Rana said in a note. “Given that the outlook includes pricing changes that took place on Jan. 24, it appears that management is assuming a deceleration in economic activity.”

New Chief Financial Officer Jeff Hoffmeister implemented price increases for new merchants in January and existing ones three months later. Wall Street mostly welcomed the change, even as consumers face inflation pressures and a rocky economic backdrop. 

Shopify, which provides software and other services that underpin the websites of many small businesses, grew dramatically during the early stages of the pandemic, with sales rising 86 per cent in 2020. 

The company cut about 1,000 jobs last July, making it an early mover in a wave of reductions that continue to roil the tech industry. It’s since introduced new measures to improve services for its small-business customers, build out offerings for larger customers while spending for growth in delivery. 

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Shopify rolled out new marketing, sales, and hardware tools to help merchants attract more buyers. “Our platform and solutions enable our merchants to stay ahead of the dynamically changing commerce landscape,” Harley Finkelstein, Shopify president, said in a statement. “Despite persistent macroeconomic challenges, they continued to succeed on Shopify.”

The disappointing outlook came alongside a report that revenue in the fourth quarter was US$1.73 billion, topping the US$1.65 billion estimate. Gross merchandise volume, the value of merchant sales flowing through Shopify’s platform, was US$61 billion compared with analyst estimates for US$59.2 billion. The company said Black Friday sales rose 19 per cent last year from 2021 to a record US$7.5 billion.

The company reported earnings of 7 cents per share on an adjusted basis, compared with estimates of a 2 cent loss.