May 28, 2024
Celsius shares sink most in three years on sales growth concerns
BNN Bloomberg
(Bloomberg) -- Celsius Holdings Inc. shares dropped by the most in more than two years after industry sales data signaled that the energy-drink maker’s revenue growth is cooling.
The stock tumbled 13 per cent on Tuesday, wiping out roughly US$2.9 billion of the company’s market value. Celsius’ year-over-year sales growth in tracked U.S. channels slowed during the week ended May 18 compared to earlier in the month, according to Morgan Stanley analyst Eric Serotta, citing NielsenIQ data. He also said the company’s market share, excluding its powder products, slipped in recent weeks, and its percentage of sales on promotion increased.
Celsius is more likely to have an outsized share-price reaction to this data than larger multinational firms given a bigger portion of its revenue comes from the U.S., so the data are seen as a closer read of business trends, according to Wedbush Securities analyst Gerald Pascarelli. As a less mature company, Celsius is also largely valued on top-line trends and market-share gains, instead of earnings, he added.
“Some of the more near-term data didn’t look as good as people were hoping, but I think anytime you have a double-digit move I would classify it as an overreaction,” Pascarelli said referring to Tuesday’s stock decline.
For the week ended May 18, Celsius’ year-over-year sales growth in tracked U.S. channels slowed to 39 per cent, down from 50 per cent for the week ended May 4, Morgan Stanley’s Serotta wrote in a note.
Pascarelli at Wedbush said trends were widely expected to decelerate this month and potentially in June, before an anticipated improvement in July following retailers’ shelf resets.
Despite the plunge, Celsius shares remain up more than 50 per cent this year, still outperforming consumer staples peers.
Stephens Inc. analyst Jim Salera said investors are also concerned about additional headwinds related to inventory changes made by Celsius distributor PepsiCo Inc.
After hosting meetings with Celsius Chief Executive Officer John Fieldly, Stifel analyst Mark Astrachan warned in a May 27 note that second-quarter sales could again be affected as PepsiCo changes the amount of Celsius inventory it holds. Adjustments weighed on Celsius sales in the first quarter.
“PepsiCo could further reduce Celsius inventories, similar to 1Q24, resulting in 2Q24 sales below end-demand,” Astrachan wrote in a note to clients.
Shares in PepsiCo, which holds a stake in Celsius, slid 2.6 per cent on Tuesday. Industry data also recently signaled weaker trends for the snack and soft-drink giant, in contrast to rival Coca-Cola Co.
Salera viewed the slump in Celsius stock as a buying opportunity. He sees the company continuing to gain shelf space at retailers, which will increase the visibility of the brand and support new household growth.
