Activision Analysts Don’t Need Microsoft Deal to Be Bullish

Ryan Vlastelica, Bloomberg News

Attendees walk past Activision Blizzard Inc. signage during the E3 Electronic Entertainment Expo in Los Angeles, California, U.S., on Wednesday, June 14, 2017. For three days, leading-edge companies, groundbreaking new technologies and never-before-seen products is showcased at E3. Photographer: Troy Harvey/Bloomberg , Bloomberg

(Bloomberg) -- Activision Blizzard Inc. analysts have been growing more positive on the video game company this month, seeing value in the shares regardless of whether Microsoft Corp.’s planned acquisition of the company closes.

At least six firms have upgraded the stock in November, including three on Monday: Wells Fargo, Truist and Morgan Stanley. Raymond James, MKM Partners and Baird all raised their view on the stock earlier this month.

“The market is undervaluing ATVI relative to both outcomes,” wrote Wells Fargo, referring to whether Microsoft’s $68.7 billion deal will close. Truist writes that the stock has an attractive risk profile “into the strongest near-term release slate in our coverage.” It added that Activision “should have a big 2023,” given the health of its Call of Duty and World of Warcraft franchises.

Currently, 76% of analysts recommend buying the stock, compared with 57% at the start of the month. The consensus rating on the stock -- a ratio of its buy, hold and sell ratings -- has jumped to 4.52 out of five, its highest since January, and up from an April low of 3.94.

This has made Activision nearly as well liked among Wall Street analysts as Take-Two Interactive Software Inc., which boasts a consensus rating of 4.57. Electronic Arts Inc. has a consensus rating of 4.29.

The growing analyst optimism about Activision comes despite questions over whether Microsoft’s deal will close. The acquisition faces an in-depth European Union probe, and it’s also facing scrutiny from US regulators.

Read more: Microsoft’s Activision Deal Hangs on Long-Shot FTC Accord

Since the takeover was announced in January, the gap between Activision’s trading price and Microsoft’s all-cash bid has been widening, driven by mounting antitrust concerns, as well as its sheer transaction size and long closing process.

The deal’s so-called merger arbitrage spread widened last week after Politico reported that the FTC is likely to file an antitrust lawsuit to block the sale. The market was pricing in roughly 40% odds of the deal successfully closing, Cowen’s merger arbitrage specialist Aaron Glick said on Friday.

Shares of Activision rose 1.6% to $74.61 on Monday, more than 20% below Microsoft’s offer to buy it for $95 per share

--With assistance from Yiqin Shen.